LIST OF WORKSHOPS

Dealing with uncertainty is a central challenge for policy designers and design studies. Recent events, including polycrises, public health emergencies, and the rapid proliferation of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, have underscored the critical importance of addressing uncertainty in policy design. The central question this workshop engages with is how to address and manage uncertainty in policy design. Our goal is to categorize these uncertainties and explore strategies for their effective management.

A lot of the discussion around uncertainty in the context of policy design  has focussed on what are described as 'ill-structured' problems, marked by a lack of clarity about the issue's nature and limited knowledge about solutions. Extensive literature over six decades categorizes types of uncertainty faced by policymakers, including in 'complex,' 'complicated,' 'wicked,' 'super wicked,' and 'tame' problems (see Peters, 2018 and Head 2022 for a review).  Janicke  and  Jorgens  (1999), Koppenjan and Klijn, (2004) and Nair and Howlett (2017) have described different forms of uncertainties that can undermine policy designs.

Policymakers often deal with limited information, asymmetric knowledge, or an inability to grasp a problem's root causes within time constraints (Koppenjan and Klijn, 2004; Howlett, 2024). This differs from debates involving contested problem definitions, as seen in climate change or health reform discussions (Sovacool, Brown and Valentine, 2016; Ramesh and Bali, 2021). Uncertainties in goals, objectives, and policy tools can stem from decision-makers' awareness and the nature of the issue (Howlett, 2024). Uncertainty also surrounds the effectiveness of policy tools and their combinations, particularly over time. That is, are interventions made at time t likely to be effective at time t + 1 (Howlett and Leong, 2021). There are also uncertainties associated with the accuracy of  specific settings of policy tools, such as tax rates or subsidy levels, which tend to resist change despite calls for flexibility. Further, policymakers also grapple with overarching uncertainties in the political environment and resource availability (Howlett, 2024), which are interconnected in unfathomable ways which make policymaking difficult.

To understand how policy designers deal with these different types of uncertainty and manage them, this workshop looks at two interconnected issues: a) specific tools used to deal with uncertainty in policy designs, and b) the role of policy capacity.

The twin focus on tools, and the capacities of policymakers to effectively deploy are central to the new design orientation in the policy sciences (Howlett and Lejano, 2013; Mukherjee and Bali, 2018). Policy tools or instruments are specific means that are used to realise policy objectives. Recent studies in policy design have focussed on how multiple tools are assembled in ‘policy mixes’ to include substantive and procedural elements, and primary and secondary elements (Bali et al 2021). The choice of tools and their effective deployment is also a function of the capacities of policymakers and implementing agencies (Wu et al 2015). That is, the skills and competencies of public actors to be able to understand these uncertainties, develop processes, and choose tools to manage them.

The workshop will bring together scholars that advance conceptual as well as empirical case studies. All papers will include a discussion that develops strategies or offers insights for policy designers in dealing with uncertainty.

Questions specific papers will focus on include:

1)    How designers deal with problems or challenges in the context of uncertainty (in the understanding of the issue or lack of an appropriate knowledge base such)? (see for e.g. Head, 2019; 2023; Cairney 2016;

2)    How designers set policy goals and objectives in an environment characterised by uncertainty?

3)    How designers use policy tools and mixes to address uncertainty in policy designs (Howlett and Ramesh, 2023; Fowler, 2021;)?

4)    How designers adjust policy settings in the context of uncertainty in targets (Capano and Woo, 2018)?

5)    The role policy capacity plays in managing uncertainty during the design process? Are certain types of capacities more critical in dealing with uncertainty? (Wu, Ramesh and Howlett, 2015; Mukherjee and Bali, 2018) 

6)    How lessons/best practices in dealing with uncertainty are institutionalised (Stark and van der Erend, 2023;  Nair and Howlett, 2017; Dunlop and Radaelli 2017)? 

Engaging with these questions will advance scholarly debate and discussion within the policy sciences around the efficacy of policy designs, as well as contribute to policy practice by developing strategies/best practices for the effective management of uncertainty.

Dealing with uncertainty is a central challenge for policy designers and in design studies. Recent events, including polycrises, public health emergencies, and the rapid proliferation of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, have underscored the critical importance of addressing uncertainty in policy design. The central question this workshop engages with is how to address and manage uncertainty in policy design.

We explore two inter-connected issues: a) specific tools used to deal with uncertainty in policy designs, and b) the role of policy capacity.

We welcome submissions that advance conceptual understanding or case studies on addressing uncertainty in policy designs. We encourage authors to engage with some aspects of the questions outlined below. All papers will include a discussion that develops strategies or offers insights for policy designers in dealing with uncertainty.

1) How designers deal with problems or challenges in the context of uncertainty (in the understanding of the issue or lack of an appropriate knowledge base such)? (see for e.g. Head, 2019; 2023; Cairney 2016;
2) How designers set policy goals and objectives in an environment characterised by uncertainty?
3) How designers use policy tools and mixes to address uncertainty in policy designs (Howlett and Ramesh, 2023; Fowler, 2021;)?
4) How designers adjust policy settings in the context of uncertainty in targets (Capano and Woo, 2018)?
5) The role policy capacity plays in managing uncertainty during the design process? Are certain types of capacities more critical in dealing with uncertainty? (Wu, Ramesh and Howlett, 2015; Mukherjee and Bali, 2018)
6) How lessons/best practices in dealing with uncertainty are institutionalised (Stark and van der Erend, 2023; Nair and Howlett, 2017; Dunlop and Radaelli 2017)?

A lot of the discussion around uncertainty in the context of policy design has focussed on what are described as 'ill-structured' problems, marked by a lack of clarity about the issue's nature and limited knowledge about solutions. An extensive literature describes and categorizes types of uncertainty and the challenges they present in policymaking (see Peters, 2018, Head 2022; Janicke and Jorgens 1999; Koppenjan and Klijn 2004; Nair and Howlett, 2017).

Policymakers often deal with limited information, asymmetric knowledge, or an inability to grasp a problem's root causes within time constraints (Koppenjan and Klijn, 2004; Howlett, 2024). This differs from debates involving contested problem definitions, as seen in climate change or health reform discussions (Sovacool, Brown and Valentine, 2016; Ramesh and Bali, 2021). Uncertainties in goals, objectives, and policy tools can stem from decision-makers' awareness and the nature of the issue (Howlett, 2024). Uncertainty also surrounds the effectiveness of policy tools and their combinations, particularly over time. That is, are interventions made at time t likely to be effective at time t + 1 (Howlett and Leong, 2021). There are also uncertainties associated with the accuracy of specific settings of policy tools, such as tax rates or subsidy levels, which tend to resist change despite calls for flexibility. Further, policymakers also grapple with overarching uncertainties in the political environment and resource availability (Howlett, 2024), which are interconnected in unfathomable ways which make policymaking difficult.

To understand how policy designers deal with these different types of uncertainty and manage them, this workshop looks at two interconnected issues: a) specific tools used to deal with uncertainty in policy designs, and b) the role of policy capacity.

Recent design studies reiterate the need for multiple tools (with substantive and procedural components, primary and secondary elements) to manage uncertainties and create ‘agile’ or ‘resilient’ designs to deal with uncertainties (Capano and Woo, 2018; Bali et al 2021). The choice of tools and their effective deployment is equally a function of the capacities of policymakers and implementing agencies (Wu et al 2015). That is, the skills and competencies of public actors to be able to understand the spectrum of uncertainties, develop processes, and choose tools to manage them.

The twin foci on tools, and the capacities of policymakers to effectively deploy are central to the new design orientation in the policy sciences (Howlett and Lejano, 2013; Mukherjee and Bali, 2018).This workshop thus aims to advance scholarly debate and discussion within the policy sciences around the efficacy of policy designs, as well as contribute to policy practice by developing strategies/best practices for the effective management of uncertainty

Azad Singh Bali is based at the University of Melbourne and Hamad Bin Khalifa University. Bali also holds an honorary Associate Professorship at the Australian National University.   His research interests include policy design and comparative studies in public policy with an emphasis on health policy. Some of this research has been published in Social Policy & Administration, Policy & Society, Policy Sciences, Public Administration among others. His most recent book is Health Policy in Asia: A Design Approach (CUP 2021, Co-authored).

M Ramesh is Professor and UNESCO Chair on Social Policy Design in Asia. Previously, he was the Founding Head of the Department of Asian and Policy at the Hong Kong Institute of Education; Professor of Social Policy at the University of Hong Kong; and Chair of the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney. Specialising in public policy and governance in Asia with a particular focus on social policy, Ramesh has authored and edited several dozen books and journal articles. He is the founder and editor of highly ranked journals Policy and Society and Policy Design and Practice as well as the acclaimed series Cambridge Elements in Public Policy.  He is currently the President of the International Public Policy Association.

Professor Brian Head joined the University of Queensland in mid-2007 after holding senior roles in government, universities, and the non-government sector. He is the author or editor of several books and numerous articles on public management, governance, social isues and environmental policy. His major interests are evidence-based policy, complex or 'wicked' problems, program evaluation, early intervention and prevention, collaboration and consultation, public sector integrity, and leadership. His recent books include Wicked Problems in Public Policy (2022, Palgrave, open access), Reconsidering Policy (2020, Policy Press, co-authored), and Learning Policy, Doing Policy (2021, ANU Press, co-edited).

Professor Jenny Lewis is Professor of Public Policy in the School of Social and Political Sciences. She is also Academic Director, Scholarly and Social Research Impact for Chancellery Research and Enterprise. She was made a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences Australia in 2020 and presented with a Routledge lifetime achievement award by the International Research Society for Public Management in 2023. Jenny is a past President of the International Research Society for Public Management, and the Australian Political Studies Association. She is an expert on policy making, policy design and public sector innovation and was the founding Director of The Policy Lab. In 2022, Jenny was a guest professor at the Department of Governance and Public Management, Ghent University, Belgium. She has also been a visiting professor at Copenhagen Business School in Denmark, Utrecht University in the Netherlands, and Fudan University in China.